El ajuste de las escuelas primarias a la disminución de la población: un enfoque de modelado espacial

The adjustment of services of general interest to ageing and shrinking populations is a significant challenge in many European regions. This article analyses the response in the number of primary schools to changes in the student population in the municipalities of mainland Portugal between 2007 and 2016. It focuses on the time lag of this adjustment, the territorial factors that influence it and the role of spatial spill-over effects. The main finding is that the relationship between the number of schools and the number of students is not straightforward and can only be understood considering the broader geographic contexts and spatial dependence structures.La adaptación de los servicios de interés general al envejecimiento y la disminución de la población es un reto importante en muchas regiones europeas. Este artículo analiza la respuesta del número de escuelas primarias a los cambios en la población estudiantil en los municipios de Portugal continental para el período de 2007-2016. Se centra en el desfase temporal de este ajuste, los factores territoriales que influyen en él y el papel de efectos de contagio espaciales. El principal hallazgo es que la relación entre el número de escuelas y el número de estudiantes no es directa y solo puede entenderse considerando los contextos geográficos más amplios y las estructuras de dependencia espacial

Estimação clássica e bayesiana de parâmetros do modelo globulus 2.1

Mestrado em Matemática e AplicaçõesEste trabalho pretende expôr e contrastar duas perspectivas diferentes de abordar o problema de estimação de parâmetros de modelos Biométricos de altura dominante, área basal e mortalidade para a espécie florestal de Eucalyptus globulus, considerando apenas a primeira rotação. As perspectivas são: a metodologia Clássica, já antes utilizada para este estudo e a metodologia Bayesiana, em que este trabalho pretende ser pioneiro em Portugal. Os resultados finais das estimações para cada uma das abordagens são comparáveis, uma vez que se usaram distribuições a priori não informativas propostas por Box-Tiao na perspectiva Bayesiana. Obtiveram-se resultados parecidos pelas duas perspectivas, excepto para o caso da estimação dos parâmetros da Mortalidade, em que a metodologia Bayesiana conduziu a um modelo final diferente do obtido pelos métodos clássicos.This work pretends to contrast two different perspectives of parameters estimation problem for dominant height, basal area and mortality Biometric Models of Eucalyptus globules in first rotation. The two perspectives are: Classical methodology, used before for this kind of study and Bayesian methodology that this work pretends to be the first in Portugal. Final results of parameters estimation for each different perspective are comparable because I used non informative priors proposed by Box-Tiao in Bayesian perspective and were similar for the two perspectives, except for the Mortality parameters because Bayesian methodology drove to a different final model

A Web-Based Approach for Visualizing Interactive Decision Maps

This research expands the applicability of the Feasible Goals (FGoal) Pareto frontier multiple criteria method to display the Edgeworth–Pareto hull using interactive decision maps (IDMs). Emphasis is placed upon the development of a communication architecture to display the Pareto frontiers, which includes a client device, a web server, and a dedicated computation server implemented with sockets. A standalone application on the latter processes client-server requests and responses to display updated information on the client. Specifically, the dedicated computation server is responsible for calculating the information needed to generate the Edgeworth–Pareto hull. This is delivered to the web server to generate the IDM to be displayed on the client device. The key innovation of this work is a tool that is developed to aid decision-makers with a network-based computational architecture that includes a computational server constantly in communication with a web server for fast responses to client requests to represent IDMs. Results show that this innovation avoids time-consuming communication, and this approach to represent IDMs on the web facilitates collaboration among decision-makers because they can analyze several complex problems in different browser windows and decide which problem and solution better correspond to their aims

Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods

Wildfires impact the outcomes of forest management plans. Addressing that impact is thus critical for effective forest ecosystem management planning. This paper presents research on the use of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods that integrate wildfire risk in planning contexts characterized by multiple objectives. Specifically, an a posteriori preference modeling approach is developed that adds wildfire criteria to a set of objectives representing ecosystem services supply values. Wildfire risk criteria are derived from stand-level wildfire occurrence and damage models as well as from the characteristics of neighboring stands that may impact wildfire probability and spread. A forested landscape classified into 1976 stands is used for testing purposes. The management planning criteria include the carbon stock, harvest volumes for three forest species, the volume of the ending inventory, and resistance to wildfire risk indicators. Results show the potential of multiple criteria decision making methods to provide information about trade-offs between wildfire risk and the supply of provisioning (timber) as well as regulatory (carbon) ecosystem services. This information may contribute to the effectiveness of forest ecosystem management planning.European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme; Portuguese Science Foundation

Combining decision support approaches for optimizing the selection of bundles of ecosystem services

This study examines the potential of combining decision support approaches to identify optimal bundles of ecosystem services in a framework characterized by multiple decision-makers. A forested landscape, Zona de Intervenção Florestal of Paiva and Entre-Douro and Sousa (ZIF_VS) in Portugal, is used to test and demonstrate this potential. The landscape extends over 14,388 ha, representing 1976 stands. The property is fragmented into 376 holdings. The overall analysis was performed in three steps. First, we selected six alternative solutions (A to F) in a Pareto frontier generated by a multiple-criteria method within a web-based decision support system (SADfLOR) for subsequent analysis. Next, an aspatial strategic multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was performed with the Criterium DecisionPlus (CDP) component of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to assess the aggregate performance of solutions A to F for the entire forested landscape with respect to their utility for delivery of ecosystem services. For the CDP analysis, SADfLOR data inputs were grouped into two sets of primary criteria: Wood Harvested and Other Ecosystem Services. Finally, a spatial logic-based assessment of solutions A to F for individual stands of the study area was performed with the NetWeaver component of EMDS. The NetWeaver model was structurally and computationally equivalent to the CDP model, but the key NetWeaver metric is a measure of the strength of evidence that solutions for specific stands were optimal for the unit. We conclude with a discussion of how the combination of decision support approaches encapsulated in the two systems could be further automated in order to rank several efficient solutions in a Pareto frontier and generate a consensual solutioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Assessing Coastal Erosion and Climate Change Adaptation Measures: A Novel Participatory Approach

This work aims to provide a more complete characterization of coastal erosion mitigation and climate change adaptation measures by presenting a participatory approach that integrates medium- to long-term perspectives, considering simultaneously social, environmental, economic and engineering dimensions to help decision makers implement sustainable climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies. The work lists, explains and characterizes existing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures as well as their costs and positive and negative social, environmental and economic impacts, in three distinct databases. These databases are discussed, complemented and validated in participatory moments with local stakeholders of the Ovar Municipality, Portugal, which represents the case study to support the proposed methodology. Although Ovar is a pilot case, the integrated framework for resilient CCA has a global application with respect to methodologies and concepts. The proposed approach is useful to help coastal management entities to engage in more efficient, effective and beneficial planned action to mitigate coastal erosion and adapt to future climate change effects. The open-source databases and the participatory approach facilitate decision makers and coastal communities to navigate the complexity of solutions and build consensus around collective actions for coastal areas.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Participatory and Spatial Multicriteria Decision Approach to Prioritize the Allocation of Ecosystem Services to Management Units

Forest management planning can be challenging when allocating multiple ecosystem services (ESs) to management units (MUs), given the potentially conflicting management priorities of actors. We developed a methodology to spatially allocate ESs to MUs, according to the objectives of four interest groups—civil society, forest owners, market agents, and public administration. We applied a Group Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System approach, combining (a) Multicriteria Decision Analysis to weight the decision models; (b) a focus group and a multicriteria Pareto frontier method to negotiate a consensual solution for seven ESs; and (c) the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to prioritize the allocation of ESs to MUs. We report findings from an application to a joint collaborative management area (ZIF of Vale do Sousa) in northwestern Portugal. The forest owners selected wood production as the first ES allocation priority, with lower priorities for other ESs. In opposition, the civil society assigned the highest allocation priorities to biodiversity, cork, and carbon stock, with the lowest priority being assigned to wood production. The civil society had the highest mean rank of allocation priority scores. We found significant differences in priority scores between the civil society and the other three groups, highlighting the civil society and market agents as the most discordant groups. We spatially evaluated potential for conflicts among group ESs allocation priorities. The findings suggest that this approach can be helpful to decision makers, increasing the effectiveness of forest management plan implementationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mitigation and adaptation strategies to coastal erosion and climate change effects

O projeto INCCA (Adaptação Integrada às Alterações Climáticas para Comunidades Resilientes) tem por objetivo promover uma abordagem que integre a adaptação às alterações climáticas e a mitigação da erosão costeira em perspetivas de curto, médio e longo-prazo. A adaptação e mitigação deve considerar as dimensões social, ambiental, económica e de engenharia, para ajudar os órgãos de decisão a conceber planos de ação para implementação de estratégias de adaptação às alterações climáticas sustentáveis e duradouras. É um projeto com uma componente participativa, que pretende envolver as populações locais e stakeholders através da realização de workshops de forma a desenvolver um modelo participativo e económico, reduzindo a vulnerabilidade dos territórios costeiros e aumentando a resiliência das comunidades locais. Este trabalho apresenta uma componente do projeto INCCA, cujo objetivo inicial corresponde ao desenvolvimento de um manual de medidas de mitigação e adaptação à erosão costeira e às alterações climáticas, de aplicação transversal a todas as zonas costeiras de características arenosas sedimentares. Esta compilação, identificação e caracterização de medidas é um processo dinâmico, que no âmbito do projeto INCCA, conta com o envolvimento das comunidades locais e stakeholders, através da realização de workshops participativos realizados no concelho de Ovar (caso de estudo do projeto) e apresenta neste momento 53 medidas. A listagem das medidas de mitigação e adaptação à erosão costeira e às alterações climáticas, bem como, cada uma das 53 fichas individuais já construídas, estão disponíveis online (http://incca.web.ua.pt/) e podem ser consultadas e comentadas.INCCA (INtegrated Coastal Climate Change Adaptation for Resilient Communities) aims to promote an approach that integrates Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and coastal erosion mitigation in short, medium and long-term perspectives, considering the social, environmental, economic and engineering dimensions of adaptation to help decision-makers design action-plans for implementing sustainable future-proof CCA strategies. The project intends to involve local populations and stakeholders through workshops to develop a participatory and economic model-based framework. The expected outcome of the project is to reduce the vulnerability of coastal territories and increase the resilience of local communities. This work is part of INCCA project and aims the development of a set of mitigation and adaptation strategies to coastal erosion and climate change effects, applied to all sedimentary coastal zones. This compilation, identification and characterization of measures is a dynamic process, with the participation of local communities and stakeholders, through participatory workshops held in the municipality of Ovar (pilot study). Currently, the project presents 53 measures. The list of measures and each individual file already developed, are available online (http://incca.web.ua.pt/) and can be consulted and commented on.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Group Decision-Making to Select Stand-Level Forest Management Models and Support Landscape-Level Collaborative Planning

Forest management planning is a challenge due to the diverse criteria that need to be considered in the underlying decision-making process. This challenge becomes more complex in joint collaborative management areas (ZIF) because the decision now may involve numerous actors with diverse interests, preferences, and goals. In this research, we present an approach to identifying and quantifying the most relevant criteria that actors consider in a forest management planning process in a ZIF context, including quantifying the performance of seven alternative stand-level forest management models (FMM). Specifically, we developed a combined multicriteria decision analysis and group decision-making process by (a) building a cognitive map with the actors to identify the criteria and sub-criteria; (b) structuring the decision tree; (c) structuring a questionnaire to elicit the importance of criteria and sub-criteria in a pairwise comparison process, and to evaluate the FMM alternatives; and (d) applying a Delphi survey to gather actors’ preferences. We report results from an application to a case study area, ZIF of Vale do Sousa, in North-Western Portugal. Actors assigned the highest importance to the criteria income (56.8% of all actors) and risks (21.6% of all actors) and the lowest to cultural services (27.0% of all actors). Actors agreed on their preferences for the sub-criteria of income (diversification of income sources), risks (wildfires) and cultural services (leisure and recreation activities). However, there was a poor agreement among actors on the subcriteria of the wood demand and biodiversity criteria. For 27.0% of all actors the FMM with the highest performance was the pedunculate oak and for 43.2% of all actors the eucalypt FMM was the least preferable alternative. The findings indicate that this approach can support ZIF managers in enhancing forest management planning by improving its utility for actors and facilitating its implementationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Web-based forest resources management decision support system

In this paper, we present a web-based decision support system (DSS)—wSADfLOR—to facilitate the access of stakeholders to tools that may contribute to enhancing forest management planning. The emphasis is on a web-based architecture and a web graphic user interface (wGUI) that may effectively support the analysis of trade-offs between ecosystem services in order to address participatory and sustainable forest management objectives. For that purpose, the wGUI provides remote access to a management information system, enabling users to analyze environmental and biometric data and topological information as well. Moreover, the wGUI provides remote access to forest simulators so that users may define and simulate prescriptions such as chronological sequences of management options and the corresponding forest ecosystem services outcomes. Remote access to management planning methods is further provided so that users may input their objectives and constraints. The wGUI delivers information about tradeoffs between ecosystem services in the form of decision maps so that users in different locations may negotiate bundles of ecosystem services as well as the plan needed to provide them. The multiple criteria programming routines provide proposals for management plans that may be assessed further, using geographical and alphanumeric information provided by the wGUI. Results for an application to a forested landscape extending to 14,388 ha are presented and discussed. This landscape provides several ecosystem services and the development of its management plan involves multiple stakeholders. Results show that the web-based architecture and the wGUI provide effective access for stakeholders to information about the forest management planning area and to decision support tools that may contribute to addressing complex multi-objective and multiple-decision-maker management planning contexts. They also highlight that the involvement and participation of stakeholders in the design of the web-based architecture contributes to assuring the quality and the usability of the systeminfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio